The sector may now explode driven by game-based training efficiencies
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As Microsoft Corp. announced on Wednesday plans for its new platform dubbed Microsoft ESP, available as of January 2008, “that enables the innovative use of visual simulations for immersive learning and decision-making, supports PC-based commercial off-the-shelf hardware and software, and enables simulations to be built faster and more cost-effectively, I’ve been considering two potential major implications for the Serious Games Market.
My very first thought – SG Market Size
Short, sweet and to the point, my very first thought was:“By no means would Microsoft join either a current $ 150 million dollar market or a to-be $ 1 billion market only in 2011”.
(Please refer to Adobe Serious Games Whitepaper By Anne Derryberry, page 6, for recent disputes on the SG market size).
My derived second thoughts – SG Business Models
Some analysts have stated that “despite the uncertainty of a standard go-to-market model for "serious games," most insiders are optimistic about their commercial future.”
However, the announcement embeds quite a few threads that could be easily pulled out to challenge the above statement, e.g.:
"With over half of today's work force having grown up playing immersive computer-based games, businesses, governments, trade schools and universities are seeking affordable solutions that enable immersive learning experiences.”
or
“Microsoft ESP makes it easy and cost-effective for organizations to apply the advantages of games-based technology to serious learning and training endeavors”,
or still
“The initial version of the platform focuses on Microsoft's established strength and expertise in aviation capabilities and is targeted to military and commercial aviation audiences. Future versions of Microsoft ESP will expand beyond aviation into ground and maritime operations, indoor and avatar-centric simulations for commercial, government and academic learning opportunities.”
As SG early developers know, potentially, every training or education program, every curriculum, could be reshaped by the use of "Serious Games."
The market so far has been essentially B2B oriented, where the majority of projects are "work-for-hire" or single-use efforts like those seen in traditional business software industries
As developers seek to find ways to make the market work for them, which implies new ways of doing business, raising capital, distributing, and selling product, it seems Microsoft is already shaping Serious Games from a movement into an emerging multi-billion dollar market.
Sources:
CNN Money
Microsoft ESP Debuts as a Platform for Visual Simulation
FUTURE-MAKING SERIOUS GAMES
New Business Models For Serious Games
Game Developers Chase Serious Games Business Models
Serious Games: A Sizeable Market - Update
Serious Games Sizeable Market, Virtual Worlds Sizeable Investment
Adobe Serious Games Whitepaper By Anne Derryberry
Technorati Tags: serious games seriousgames future-making serious games serious games market
2 Comments:
Eliane,
It seems that more people are jumping into the "Serious Games" business. I'm not sure they are looking carefully before they leap!
I just read an article on Kokatu.com about Kaiser Permanente's venture into the serious games business They developed a health game for kids, and put put a lot of money behind it. In reality, most of the young people I know would NOT be impressed. Sadly, that is the case for the majority of interactive "games" used in classrooms.
Developers of effective games have a sixth sense about what the players want, they know about "flow", and they also have played a a wide range of games.
If the serious games business is going to make an impact, if it really aims to encourage people to change attitudes, behaviors, and improve skills, it must involve players throughout the design and usability study process at a higher level than appears to be happening at the moment. The best PR available can not change a mediocre game.
Agreed Lynn...but a few follow-up thoughts. One, didn't they say the same thing about the terrors of desktop publishing when it first arrived? Graphic designers, typesetters, printers, pre-press folks - "only a professional can design a (fill in blank)".
The reality is that yes, it takes professionals, but that talented amateurs arise when the tools for development are made available to the masses. Rather than needing years of experience grunting code in a game development company, or a course at a college, kids will be able to toy around with tools like Metaplace and, to a lesser degree, MS's offering and by trial and error some of them will get it. It's a numbers game.
No, having access to desktop publishing or 3D modeling tools doesn't make you a graphic artist. Maya is out of most people's reach - both in price and learning curve. But then Starax doesn't have any training at all, is self-taught, and learned it using Second Life's clunky platform and his work is as beautiful as any out there.
I think you proved your own point - Kaiser can invest serious money with serious people and come out with serious crap. Now, without a lot of money, and with lots of people toying around, we can anticipate odds are good that the "old experienced hands who understand 'flow'" may be better off thinking about how they can add value in a collaborative, free-wheeling "amateur" development world...remember, some of the fastest spreading media doesn't appear on NBC, it's over on YouTube...and some of the best games addressing issues as diverse as poverty or global warming will, I bet, come out of some kid's basement and be optioned by a game studio cruising the "serious game portals".
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